denver real estate

Denver Housing Market Slowdown Gives First-Time Buyers New Opportunities

 
 

September’s Denver Metro real estate market experienced a seasonal slowdown, with new listings, pending sales, and closed sales declining.

Although closed sales dropped about 20% from August, prices held steady at a median of $585,000, according to September’s monthly report from the Denver Metro Association of Realtors.

First-time homebuyers not tied to historically low-interest rates are leading the charge on purchases, said Libby Levinson-Katz, chair of the DMAR Market Trends Committee.

“In many ways, this is the perfect market for first-time homebuyers to seize opportunities,” she said. “While interest rates are high, these buyers can negotiate instead of jumping into bidding wars where they might pay 10 percent over the asking price to secure a property like many did over a year ago.”

Although the average close-to-list-price ratio is down year-over-year by almost 5 percent to 99 percent, more buyers want concessions like buydowns to reduce their interest rates instead of haggling on price.

Looking ahead

At the end of September, active listings increased 11.24 percent to 7,629. That’s still about half the average number of listings for September (15,453 from 1985-2022) and significantly below the record high of 31,450 in September 2006.

The median days on the market increased by 27% in September to 14 days.

While many sellers don’t want to lower prices, starting too high can cause the home to sit on the market longer, making potential buyers worry something is wrong with the house.

The realtors association also suggests sellers planning to list homes now or in the next few months prepare now by getting pre-inspections of the roof, air-conditioning, and sprinkler systems before snow falls.

Luxury market

Colleen Covell, a market trends committee member and realtor at Mile Hi Modern, said there are nearly five months of inventory for homes in the $1.5 to $1.99 million. In comparison, there are more than six months of inventory for homes priced over $2 million.

“This portion of the market has finally tipped into a balanced — if not a buyer’s — market for the first time in recent memory,” she said.

With homes priced over $1 million taking 34 days to sell, buyers have more negotiating power and could get their dream home under the asking price.

“Sellers need to appreciate that the market has shifted significantly in this segment, and correct pricing is critical to a quick sale.”

Learn more at Denverpost.com

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Housing market falling short by nearly 4 million homes as demand grows

Homebuilding took a sharp turn higher to end 2019, but it is far from enough to satisfy the current demand.

The U.S. housing market is short nearly 4 million homes, according to new analysis from realtor.com.

Takeaways:

  • The 5.9 million single family homes built between 2012 and 2019 do not offset the 9.8 million new households formed during that time, according to an analysis by realtor.com

  • Even with an above average pace of construction, it would take builders between four and five years to get back to a balanced market.

  • “Simply put, new home starts are not keeping pace with demand. Homebuilders have a mountain of opportunity, but a big hill to climb,” said Javier Vivas, director of economic research at realtor.com

Analyzing U.S. census data, the report showed that the 5.9 million single-family homes built between 2012 and 2019 do not offset the 9.8 million new households formed during that time. Even with an above average pace of construction, it would take builders between four and five years to get back to a balanced market.

The shortfall today can be blamed on the epic housing crash of more than a decade ago, brought on by irrational and unscrupulous mortgage lending. With loans available to even the riskiest buyers, builders responded by putting up 1.7 million single-family homes at the peak of the construction boom in 2005, according to the U.S. census. That was about 5 million more than the 20-year average.

When the lion’s share of those bad mortgages defaulted, and millions of homes went into foreclosure, home construction plummeted, landing at just 430 starts by 2011. In addition, about 5 million homes were bought by investors and turned into rentals during and after the crisis, further lowering for-sale inventory.

Builders crawled back after that, focusing on mostly higher-end homes, where the margins are more attractive. But lower mortgage rates and the aging millennial population have ignited demand in the last few years, and while builders put up 888,000 homes in 2019, it was still not enough.

“Simply put, new home starts are not keeping pace with demand. Homebuilders have a mountain of opportunity, but a big hill to climb,” said Javier Vivas, director of economic research at realtor.com. “The current inventory crisis and the need for 3.8 million new homes means a nearly insatiable appetite from potential buyers, especially in the lower end of the market.”

Builders are starting to address the entry-level market, offering smaller, more basic floor plans with stripped-down amenities. That should help, but only if millennials are willing to move further away from the cities.

Adding to the supply crunch is the new desire among baby boomers to age in place. Older Americans are not freeing up their homes at the same rate as previous generations did at their age. Part of that is because so many millennials moved back in with their parents during the recession, unable to afford to either rent or buy their own space. That has left a shortage of move-up homes in some communities.

“Large populations of renters and well-qualified potential buyers with strong incomes are waiting in the wings,” added Vivas.

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