Timing is everything—and that is particularly true when it comes to buying a home.
The dream? Drop into the market when prices, mortgage rates, and competition from other buyers is low—and then snag a large, move-in ready home in a desirable area for a sweet deal.
The reality? Today’s real estate market is highly competitive and highly expensive—and many homebuyers are having to settle, or drop out of the market entirely.
So when is the best time to buy a home? Well, for certain markets, right now actually. There are places where buyers have the upper hand—or, at the very least, the out-of-control bidding wars have calmed down and buyers have a bit more time to make up their minds. The economics team at Realtor.com® found the markets where the optimal time to purchase a home is still ahead.
Fortunately, our data specialists have been grappling with this question for years by tracking buyer-friendly market conditions for every week of the year. They looked at median home list prices; the number of homes for sale; the number of new “fresh” listings; how long a home is on the market before it sells; homebuyer demand based on the number of listing views received on Realtor.com; and the number of price reductions.
The Realtor.com team looked at the best individual weeks to buy a home in the 50 largest metropolitan areas. (Metros include the main city and surrounding towns, suburbs, and smaller urban areas.)
“This year’s market has slowed considerably compared to years past, a welcomed shift for buyers,” Realtor.com senior economic analyst Hannah Jones wrote in the latest “Best Time to Buy” report.
“In many markets, homes are spending more time on the market than in the last few years, meaning buyers may find sellers more flexible than during the red-hot pandemic market,” she wrote. “Still-high mortgage rates mean that the typical buyer would still pay more as a monthly payment for a median-priced home compared to last year, but the relentless climb in prices has finally come to a halt.”
By examining data from 2018, 2019, 2021, and 2022 (excluding 2020 due to COVID-19 anomalies) and comparing it with 2023, the team pinpointed the first week of October as the optimal time to buy this year. Buyers who braved the market could expect a wider selection of homes for sale, fewer competing offers, and savings of over $15,000 compared with the summer peak for a median-priced home of $445,000.
However, real estate is local. In some parts of the country, the best time to buy is in the rearview; in others, it is still coming up.
In a handful of markets, the most favorable conditions for buyers actually occur later in the year, defying conventional wisdom that the housing market slows down as the weather cools.
Now, let’s take a closer look at the seven major metropolitan areas where late fall and winter offer the best conditions for homebuyers.
Best week to buy: Nov. 5–11
Median list price: $316,358
In the heart of the Bluegrass State, Louisville offers a unique blend of Southern charm and urban sophistication. And if you’re looking to score a real estate deal, mark your calendar for the first week of November.
Louisville tops our list with the biggest rate of price reductions during this optimal week, when compared with an average week for the area. Sellers here are highly motivated to close deals during this time of the year.
Couple that with 20% more active listings than the average week in Louisville, and you’ve got a buyer’s buffet.
And if you’re worried about competition, don’t be. Views per property are down a staggering 33% compared with peak times, making this the opportune moment to snag your dream home in the land of bourbon and horse racing.
The vast majority of homes for sale in the city proper are single-family homes, but buyers can still find condos and townhomes. This four-bedroom, two-bathroom Cape Cod with a sunroom is on the market for $259,000.
2. Phoenix, AZ
Best week to buy: Nov. 5–11
Median list price: $532,000
The Phoenix metro, affectionately referred to as the Valley of the Sun, includes a smattering of cities from Scottsdale to Glendale and Anthem to Chandler. This time of the year draws snowbirds from the chilly north, but it’s also the prime time season for real estate.
Around this time of year, buyers drawn by the warm winter weather start heading to Phoenix.
“What happens in the first week of November in Arizona?” asks Kristy Ryan, a Realtor® at Re/Max Fine Properties in Scottsdale. “It’s heaven. It’s like 82 degrees. We’re getting ready to head into the best eight months of the year where it’s 80 degrees every day, sunny and beautiful.”
The first week of November is a unique window of opportunity here, with 28% more new listings than an average week—the highest on our list.
This four-bedroom, three-bathroom brick house is on the market for just under $585,5000. Buyers who don’t need as much space can check out this three-bedroom, two-bathroom new construction for just under $400,000.
Best week to buy: Nov. 5–11
Median list price: $425,000
Charlotte, the Queen City, has become a crown jewel of the South, with booming tech and financial industries. It’s also home to the NASCAR Hall of Fame and the headquarters of Fortune 500 companies like Bank of America and Lowe’s. The metro also includes nearby Concord and Gastonia.
Charlotte offers a royal opportunity for buyers in the first full week of November.
Active listings are up by 18% compared with the average week, and price reductions hover around 1.2%.
The city’s diverse neighborhoods, from the historic Fourth Ward, where buyers can snag condos in gleaming towers or lower-rise brick complexes, to the artsy NoDa, where there are smaller cottages and Cape Cods for sale along with brand-new townhomes, offer a range of options for every kind of buyer.
Best week to buy: Nov. 5–11
Median list price: $299,000
Birmingham, a city that became synonymous with the Civil Rights Movement in the 1960s, is now becoming known for its burgeoning food scene and rich music and arts culture.
For buyers shopping in the Birmingham metro in early November, homes typically stay on the market for an average of more than three weeks longer than the area’s peak homebuying season. So it’s a good thing the winters here are so mild this time of year, with a weather-comfort index rated at 8 out of 10 in the month of November.
With just 1.1 million residents, Birmingham is the smallest metro on our list (closely followed by Buffalo, NY).
Buyers can find newly constructed three-bedroom, two-bathroom homes for about $270,000 or a remodeled three-bedroom, two-bathroom ranch for about $240,000.
5. Buffalo, NY
Best week to buy: Nov. 12–18
Median list price: $259,900
Buffalo offers more than just great wings and Bills football games.
“As a buyer, the best week is in November,” says Matthew Roland, assistant dean at the University of Buffalo’s Department of Urban and Regional Planning.
Home sellers who haven’t found buyers by this time, he says, are often in a rush to close deals.
“Sellers are thinking, ‘Oh, no, I have to sell this now,'” he says. “So they’re slashing prices or throwing anything they can at that buyer.”
The second week of November is a quiet time for the market, with a 50% drop in views per property—the biggest on our list.
“Nobody really wants to move or close in December unless they absolutely have to,” Roland adds.
Homes also stay on the market for 28 more days compared with peak times, giving buyers the luxury of choice without the pressure of immediate competition. And with the least expensive median list price on our list, Buffalo offers affordability without sacrificing charm.
6. Tampa, FL
Best week to buy: Dec. 3–9
Median list price: $439,244
Tampa, a city that straddles the spot where the Gulf of Mexico meets Tampa Bay, is a treasure trove for homebuyers in early December.
“Our market is totally different because we are not cyclical based on seasons at all, as most of the North is,” says Caitlin Jones, a Realtor with Dalton Wade Real Estate Group, in St. Petersburg. That’s because the warm weather is year-round, drawing buyers even during what would be the offseason of other markets.
The Tampa metro, which includes St. Petersburg and Clearwater, typically experiences a more than 40% drop in views per property compared with peak times. That means the competition has traditionally been as mild as a Florida winter.
The state’s tax laws also contribute to making it a good time to buy, Jones says.
Florida’s generous homestead exemption can provide significant property tax savings—and is portable, meaning it can be transferred from one homestead property to another. However, claiming the benefit requires owning the home on Jan. 1, or else having to wait until the following year.
“If you’re able to sell by the end of the year, there’s a tax benefit,” Jones adds.
7. Miami, FL
Best week to buy: Jan. 8–14
Median list price: $599,000
Miami, the Magic City, saves its best tricks for the new year.
To be sure, it’s the most expensive market on our list. It also became hugely popular during the pandemic as companies expanded and relocated in the area and scores of new residents poured in, boosting competition and home prices.
If you have your heart set on living in Southern Florida, it could pay off to hold out until the first weeks of 2024 to ensure the best buying conditions in the Miami metro, which also includes Fort Lauderdale and Pompano Beach.
New listings are up by 8% compared with the average week, giving buyers a fresh array of choices in this vibrant, multicultural metropolis.
Learn more at Realtor.com
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