Mortgage rates have peaked along with inflation

 
 

The CPI data cooled even though shelter inflation is lagging

Today’s inflation data has shown that the peak growth rate of inflation is behind us. This should also mean mortgage rates hit their highs. The key phrase I have stressed since I wrote about the case for mortgage rates to go lower on Oct. 27 is thinking 12 months out. The trend is your friend, and the month-to-month data has cooled off noticeably.

That cooling happened even with the biggest inflation component — shelter inflation — still rising in the lagged modeled CPI data. This means shelter inflation isn’t being properly accounted for versus the real-time data.

The Consumer Price Index month-to-month readings show that inflation has peaked, as seen below.

If it weren’t for the lagging CPI shelter index, the biggest component, the headline core print, would be lower today on a year-over-year basis. It’s a positive thing that most people have gotten the memo on this reality about shelter inflation because it shows how the headline year-over-year prints are lower as we speak.

While still hot, the year-over-year inflation growth rate is falling, see below. All this is happening with the labor market still very tight, which means the Fed doesn’t need to create a job-loss recession to bring inflation down. The best way to fight inflation is to add more supply, demand destruction is not the most effective way, and it will impact future production.

The jobless claims data on Thursday, as you can see below, was still solid and running at 205,000 for the headline, with a four-week moving average of 212,500.

For those who were saying we needed an unemployment rate above 6% to bring down inflation, you must feel sick to your stomach as that advice would have meant millions of Americans would have lost their job for no reason.

How did the bond market react to this inflation data? It was a mild day compared to what we saw back in November of 2022. However, as I am writing this, the 10-year yield is at 3.45%, which is the third time we are trying to lower this area.

This does mean mortgage rates should be getting better today. We are getting closer to a five-handle in mortgage rates and farther away from the 8%-10% mortgage rates people were talking about late last year when rates peaked at 7.37%.

Digging into the inflation data

From BLS
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined 0.1 percent in December on a seasonally adjusted basis, after increasing 0.1 percent in November, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 6.5 percent before seasonal adjustment. The index for gasoline was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all items decrease, more than offsetting increases in shelter indexes. The food index increased 0.3 percent over the month with the food at home index rising 0.2 percent. The energy index decreased 4.5 percent over the month as the gasoline index declined; other major energy component indexes increased over the month.

Breaking down some of the internals is key to understanding the CPI data. Of course, the biggest component of inflation is housing. I stressed in late 2020 that shelter inflation was going to take off, but the opposite is the reality now. However, the CPI data lags badly here.

Thankfully, the Federal Reserve understood this and created its own index in December to account for the lag. Back in September, on CPI inflation day, I talked about how this would be a positive story in 2023. I said by January or February, it would be evident that the growth rate of shelter inflation was falling, and people have gotten the memo. I could not have asked for a better outcome than where we are today.

Read the full article on Housing Wire.

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Why Purchasing New Construction Can Be a Smart Move for First-Time Homebuyers

 
 

Many first-time homebuyers might presume they’re better off going used rather than new—in other words, purchasing a pre-existing property rather than pricey new construction.

While it’s true that brand-new homes often come with a heftier price tag upfront, these properties can actually end up being a good—even great—deal for first-time buyers.

“It is true that new-construction homes, on average, are 10% to 15% higher in sales price than resale homes, but that doesn’t mean that they are less affordable,” says Bob Seeman, vice president of sales for New Homes at Realtor.com. “Simply put, total homeownership costs are more than a monthly mortgage payment alone.”

Here’s why first-time homebuyers shouldn’t rule out new construction, and how these opportunities can be a better deal than many might think.

Low inventory means first-time buyers should explore all options

In a housing market that’s still dealing with extremely limited inventory, the reality is first-time homebuyers can’t afford to dismiss this option.

According to the National Association of Realtors®, the inventory of existing homes on the market in December 2022 was at an all-time low of 910,000. That was a year-over-year decrease of 18%, and marks 31 straight months of declines in available homes.

“The housing shortage will get worse over the next year—we simply don’t have enough supply,” says John Hunt, chief analyst for MarketNsight.

For example, Hunt says, to get back to “normal” and meet demand, Atlanta alone would need 66,000 additional homes on the market over the next 12 months.

Compounding the problem is that homeowners who might normally sell aren’t doing so because they’re reluctant to buy a new home—and get a new mortgage—when interest rates are so high.

Translation: Unless you want to be waiting a long time to buy your first home, you should consider new-construction homes because there just aren’t enough homes of any kind to satisfy the current demand.

Builders can help first-time buyers with better financing

Let’s face it, price matters. That’s true whether you’re buying your first home or third luxury vacation property. The difference with a new-construction purchase, however, is you might be able to save money through builder incentives.

These promotions—meant to attract buyers to a certain development project—frequently come in the form of financing help, and this is what can make a new-construction home purchase workable for a first-time buyer.

“What many first-time buyers most need are cash to close and monthly payments that they can afford,” says Seeman. “Because many builders can offer financing through their company’s mortgage arm or through a lender affiliate, they have programs to help reduce the amount of cash a buyer needs to close on a home.”

A reduction in the initial cash outlay can make all the difference for a first-time homebuyer. Many builders are also currently offering much lower mortgage rates through their lenders as well in order to attract first-time buyers who would otherwise be priced out of the market.

“We’re seeing builders get creative with financing—offering rates as low as 4.99% to 5.99% right now, which is lower than what you’ll see for existing homes,” says Alex Toth, director of homebuilder partnerships at Opendoor.

Since mortgage rates spiked in October to over 7% for a 30-year fixed-rate loan for the first time in 20 years, this could indeed determine if a first-time buyer can qualify for a home or not.

Another benefit of working with a builder’s lender is that the lender is usually well-versed in FHA and VA loan options. These low or no-down payment loans might also be a huge benefit to first-time homebuyers trying to secure a mortgage if they qualify.

Learn more on Realtor.com

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Carteret County Real Estate Market Report from December 2022

 
 

Carteret County’s December Market Stats are in!


We entered 2022 in an intense state of high buyer demand, low interest rates with impending increases on the horizon and very low inventory, which continued the frenzied multiple offers, over-asking price sales and waiving contingencies within the contract gifting homeowners a steep appreciation from January to April. In March, the Federal Reserve started raising the base Fed rate to slow the economy as inflation hit a 40-year high. By April, the real estate market started to show signs of slowing as buyers saw the mortgage rates increase, reducing their buying power.

Affordability and market uncertainty caused many buyers to pull back by mid-summer-this was a gift to buyers still in the market, providing an opportunity to negotiate with sellers on the sale price, concessions and inspection items, something they hadn't had the luxury of in years.

Interest rate increases dominated the conversation for most of the year, but the lack of inventory was still an important player. The number of new homes that entered the market in Carteret County decreased; we typically see a decline in new listings from November to December as sellers pull back to focus their time and energy on the holidays. The inventory has gradually increased throughout the year, resulting in homes staying on the market longer before going under contract, not necessarily more sellers entering the market. In December, the median days in the MLS was 61, up from 43 in November. 

The increase in interest rates and decrease in buyer demand has impacted home prices. The average sale price for single family homes in December was $544,261, down 18 percent from November and up 11 percent from December 2021. 

This post-pandemic shift back to a more normalized market will take some time. There are many still wanting to buy a home who have not given up and are simply waiting on the sidelines for the market and rates to stabilize. There are many opportunities for buyers in this market; motivated sellers are willing to negotiate on price and inspection items and pay down the interest rate for buyers to make the home more affordable. Sellers must adjust their expectations, know that this market differs from the past couple of years and be patient. Although the average days in the MLS have increased, it is still a good market for sellers willing to prepare their homes and price competitively.

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2023 Home and Design Trends to Watch

 
 

Sustainable design and warm, cozy spaces are on the rise in 2023.

Architecture and design experts weigh in on what’s emerging in 2023. As the new year emerges, lifestyle changes due to the pandemic continue to hold strong. Cutting home expenses and conserving resources are top of mind for many. Move over, granite: These new countertop materials are coming in strong, and cozy comfort is taking the place of stark, minimalist design.

Home Office Updates

For many, hybrid work is here to stay, so home offices make the list, though changes are in order. Many crave some interaction, says Priscilla Holloway, a salesperson with New York City–based Douglas Elliman.

Architect Liz Peabody of Boston-based The Architectural Team says that open, partially open and glass-walled spaces are seen in houses as well as multifamily buildings’ common spaces and individual apartment units. Another change is that some offices are larger and have a window for a nice view, according to designers at The Plan Collection(link is external).

Why now? The pandemic changed how and where we work, and people are still figuring out what works best at home.

Induction Cooking

Though the change will be gradual, many homeowners are expected to switch to induction cooking from natural gas. Many are finding that their cookware is induction-safe, despite previously held beliefs, says Chicago kitchen expert Mick De Giulio of de Giulio Kitchen Design. Induction has many benefits: Water boils faster, food cooks quicker, and homeowners have more control of heat level calibration, he says. Additionally, the smooth surface is easier to clean.

Why now? Many cities are outlawing natural gas hookups in new homes and buildings to reduce fossil fuel emissions and better control environmental and climate challenges.

Eco-friendly Design

More real estate sites list eco-friendly design as a priority, from solar panels to energy-efficient windows, stronger builds that better resist severe weather, more tech features like programmable thermostats, gardening apps(link is external) and smarter, more environmentally friendly, hygienic toilets like Toto USA’s Washlet and bidet toilets. TOTO also manufactures domestically, reducing its products’ carbon footprints, says Bill Strang, president of corporate strategy, e-commerce and customer care. 

Why now? More homeowners know the importance of sustainable design due to climate change reports, how fossil fuels damage the environment and the importance of preserving resources.

Cozier Comfort

Tough times call for an antidote, and many are seeking a dose of comfort within the walls of their homes. The ebb and flow of COVID-19 in conjunction with other stressors has people wanting to feel as though they’re wrapped in a warm hug, says Chicago-based designer Tom Segal of Kaufman Segal Design. He suggests doing so with patterned wallpaper on both walls and ceilings. A tactile touch also works, he says. Think big, upholstered headboards; ’50s and ’60s lounge-style sections to sprawl, watch TV or eat; and colorful tufted or handwoven area rugs that resemble art.

Why now? Collective stress levels are at an all-time high, and people are finding they need a respite from the constant barrage of information available because of the digital age.

More Natural, Personalized Interiors

The biophilic, natural look prevails in appeal because of the benefit nature provides. Homeowners want organic furnishings, live plants and warmer colors in the clay palette, says Gena Kirk, vice president of Design Studio at Los Angeles–based homebuilder KB Home. The latest iteration reflects interest in embracing memories through personalized design aesthetics that display mementos and heirlooms, Kirk says.

Why now? During the pandemic, homeowners opted for cleaner, minimalist interiors to set a clear boundary between personal space and the outside world. They now want to return to a new form of nesting, through an accumulation of textiles, warmer colors, new hardware and fabrics for a welcoming, natural environment to live, work and play, Kirk says.

Dekton and Neolith Surfaces

Every few years, a new countertop surface takes center stage as the best in terms of durability, sustainability, color or novelty. The latest “it” surfaces are newer “sintered” stones, a combination of minerals that form a solid surface that can’t be etched, scratched, burned or stained. Dekton and Neolith appeal because they resemble marble and other high-end surfaces and are resistant to fading, says Boston designer Jodi Swartz of KitchenVisions. Milwaukee designer Suzan Wemlinger adds that because the slabs are large, there’s less need for seams, and they can be used in outdoor kitchens without cracking in extreme temperatures.

Why now? New technology processes have led to the development of these stain-resistant, strong surfaces, and kitchen counter durability is nearly always top of mind for homeowners.

Affordable Design Choices

Instead of tempting buyers with fancy cabinets, finishes and appliances, more homebuilders are turning to affordability as a feature. “Good design is not about spending the most money but offering well-designed homes, sometimes without bells and whistles,” says Mary Cook, founder of Mary Cook Associates, a Chicago-based commercial interior design firm. Builders are displaying predesigned packages of cabinets, countertops, appliances and flooring that keep costs down. They’re also cutting square footage to show that buyers can live well in smaller homes, Cook says.

Why now? Higher interest rates have put a pause on buyer frenzy. “We went from crazy busy to crazy slow,” one homebuilder says. Now is the time to see how affordability and quality design come together.

Zero Emissions

Master-planned developments are taking the guesswork out of emission-free living. Developer Marshall Gobuty of Sarasota, Fla.–based Pearl Homes shows how with his 18-acre Hunter’s Point development, the first LEED Zero–certified community in the world, he says. “There’s no energy cost associated with the 86 single-family houses except for a $35 monthly maintenance fee from Florida Power,” he says.

Why now? With the pandemic and overall inflation, energy costs continue to soar. Also, sustainable development helps communities adapt to challenges posed by climate change and protects natural resources.

In Multifamily: More EV, Fewer Additional Amenities

Few multifamily buildings are constructed without an EV charging station, says architect Peabody. Developers are including a handful and leaving infrastructure available to expand the number. At the same time, they are devoting less square footage to amenities since younger generations are less inclined to pay for features they may not use, especially after seeing how the pandemic shut down facilities. What most still want are lounges, coworking spaces and outdoor areas to exercise and unwind, Peabody says. Pet parks and spas still make the list as well, says Cook.

Why now? EV stations are essential as more people switch to electric vehicles. Just over half of passenger cars sold in the U.S. will be electric vehicles by 2030, according to Bloomberg(link is external).

Walkable, Affordable Boomer Living

More efforts are underway to create more options for the enormous boomer cohort as they age(link is external). Many want to give up owning a car, live where their location has a high walkability score and cut living costs by living in smaller, energy-efficient homes. One example is developer David Fox’s Passive House building in Northampton, Mass., to be completed in 2024; it will eliminate 80% of typical energy needs to heat and cool and be built with sustainable mass timber construction, solar panels, a community garden and a bicycle shed. The building’s 70 apartments will average 1,200 square feet; share a gym, lounge and roof area to exercise; and limit rent increases.

Why now? Boomers are the largest aging community to date, and as the country ages, more emphasis on how elders live is needed now.

Fire-Resistant Modules

On the east coast, building structures to withstand Category 5 hurricanes and floods are in high demand. On the west coast, however, San Diego–based modular builder Dvele focuses on manufacturing fire-resistant steel modular houses. The company started with 500-square-foot homes constructed from a single module design and now offers 4,000-square-foot homes from seven module designs. All are also highly energy-efficient due to self-powered solar panels, says Kellan Hannah, the company’s director of growth.

Why now? The National Interagency Fire Center statistics show that as of last October, almost 60,000 fires burned 7 million acres, above the 10-year average of 48,000 fires and close to 6 million burned acres. Fires are only worsening, meaning construction must adapt.

What’s NOT Hot?    

Several once-popular design choices are losing appeal, primarily because they require high maintenance or aren’t functional for today’s busy routines, says Gena Kirk with homebuilder, KB Home. She suggests letting go of these four in the year ahead.

High Pile Carpet 

While soft, shaggy carpet styles make a statement, they are difficult to keep clean and aren’t practical, especially in households with kids and/or pets. 

Gray Cabinets 

Gray cabinets have been popular but are cooling off as more homeowners shift to warmer hues to make their spaces more welcoming. 

Standard Subway Tiles 

Standard-size white, horizontal subway tiles are still popular, but many now prefer larger 4-by-10 inch or 4-by-16-inch tiles that run vertically to draw eyes up and give an age-old design a fresh look.

Open Shelves 

Most struggle with clutter, so even though some love the open look above, others are opting for the traditional closed cabinets since they find it easier to keep stuff concealed. These days there are countless custom interior organization systems to arrange contents in a neat fashion.

Get more trend predictions here.

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The First Thing to Do to Get Your Finances in Order in the New Year, According to Money Experts

 
 

Even if you don’t buy into New Year’s resolutions or “new year, new you” messaging, there’s something about the beginning of the year that encourages fresh starts — setting goals and looking forward, not backward. It’s a time to reestablish habits and practices that work for you and let go of those that don’t.

It’s also the perfect opportunity to reexamine your finances, consider your money goals or set new ones, and take the necessary steps toward financial health. It may not be easy, but it’ll be worth it. Below, financial experts offer some of their best advice on the first thing to do to get your finances in order on Jan. 1, 2023. You’ve got this!

Lay it all on the table.

Before you do anything else, sit down and review everything money-related in your life: credit card balances, car payments, savings, and more. 

“One of the most important things to do right now is to take stock of where you are,” says Katie Burke, founder of Method Financial Planning. “Every year, small details will change. A little pay raise can make a big difference, as can an increase in the cost of your bills or monthly subscriptions, or a slight change in your benefits package.” 

Even though the market is currently more volatile than stable, don’t be afraid to check in on your investments. “Investments are meant to be a source of security; they shouldn’t be a source of worry and panic,” says Burke. “That’s why the best thing to do when dealing with investments, especially during the bumpy ride of a recession, is stay calm. One of the wisest investment strategies is to stay in the market rather than bail out when things get rough, and it never pays to act on emotion rather than rational thinking.” 

Set goals, then tweak your budget accordingly. 

Got all that? “Once you have the full picture of your finances, you can set realistic goals for yourself, whether it be paying off high-interest-rate debts, building an emergency fund, or increasing your retirement savings,” says Kendall Clayborne, certified financial planner at SoFi. “The key to setting realistic goals is to break big goals down into smaller ones. If it is anything that will take longer than a couple of months to accomplish, break it down further so you can focus on accomplishing something for the next 30, 60, or 90 days.”

To help with that, Burke recommends creating a fresh budget based on what you now know about your financial situation and your financial goals. 

Additionally, Burke says the new year is a great time to reconsider asset allocation. “If you normally allocate 20 percent of your savings to cash, for example, you could consider reducing this by 5 percent, and investing that 5 percent in stocks this year. You may also choose to diversify your investments in different ways, too, depending on the strengths and weaknesses of the market. You can always review all of this when you come to rebalance,” she explains. “And just as with your budget, when you’re reviewing your investments, don’t forget to keep your financial goals front and center.”

Consider calling in a financial planner or advisor if you need help with any of this.

Map out the coming year’s major purchases or big events.

If you know you’ll have to replace an appliance, buy a car, or update your couch in 2023, plan for it. 

“While unexpected expenses and impulse buys may still occur, do your best to plan your purchases in advance,” says Rebecca Gramuglia, consumer expert at TopCashBack.com. “If you’re planning to buy something at a specific store, keep track of their ‘sales cycle’ to determine when you may find the best deals. Once you’re ready to shop, layer any applicable coupons and promotions to your total. And if possible, use a rewards credit card to get cash back, points, or miles when you shop, depending on your card’s program.”

Going on a vacation? Attending a few weddings? Splurging on a big gift for your partner’s milestone birthday? Plan it! “One of the best things you can do is look at a calendar while you’re planning out your finances for the year,” says Kevin Matthews II, money expert at Public.com. “Make sure you account for weddings, birthdays, and holidays so that they don’t sneak up and throw your budget off course. Doing this can also help you break down some of your goals to a week-to-week or month-to-month level, making it easier to manage your cash flow.”

Automate, automate, automate.

Many experts brought up automating your savings — setting up an automatic deduction from your checking account to savings so you’re constantly funneling cash without noticing it. 

“Suppose you want to build an emergency fund or save more toward retirement. Instead of trying to remember every month to save money, set up automated transfers from your checking account to your savings or brokerage account every payroll period,” says certified financial planner Andrew Latham. “Ideally, you should set up the automated transfers as part of your employer’s direct deposit, as this will make it a little more difficult to turn them off. This added friction will make it harder to stop saving when you’re tempted to use the money for non-essential purchases.” Latham recommends trying to save 20 percent off your after-tax income, but adds that even $20 per pay period is great if that’s what you can contribute.

And speaking of automating, if one of your goals is to beef up your credit score, Latham also recommends setting up automated payments for things like the electric or cable bill. “Setting up automatic payments for your bills is one of the best things you can do to build your credit (or protect your credit if it’s already excellent),” he explains. “One single late payment on your credit report can lower your credit score by as much as 180 points. A drop of 180 in your credit score could mean being denied a mortgage or a lease. It will also increase the interest rate you pay on loans or credit cards, and your insurance quotes will probably have higher premiums.” 

The big takeaway here? This year, strategically save money and boost your credit score — and do so without even thinking about it.

Get more like this on Apartment Therapy.

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