How home-price growth has damaged the housing market

 
 

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index just recorded 20.4% year-over-year growth nationally and a record 21.2% growth for its top 20 city composite, and now you know why my most significant concern for housing was home prices overheating, not crashing like people have warned about from 2012-2021.

From S&P: The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 20.4% annual gain in April, down from 20.6% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 19.7%, up from 19.5% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 21.2% year-over-year gain, up from 21.1% in the previous month… Nine of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending April 2022 versus the year ending March 2022.

This data line lags the current housing market as it’s a few months old. Since the summer of 2020, I have talked about how to cool down home sales: we need the 10-year yield to break over 1.94%. This happened in March, and thankfully so. Imagine if mortgage rates didn’t rise this year. We are still showing double-digit home-price growth trends in the recent data as it takes time for higher mortgage rates to really increase supply back to normal levels.

However, as you can see below, the damage has been done with home-price growth. I developed a specific home-price growth model for the years 2020-2024 which said that if home-price growth grew at 23% for five years we would be fine, with total housing demand —both new and existing homes together — getting to 6.2 million or higher.

Well, guess what? America did a Hulk Smash on my model in just two years. Whenever you see vertical home-price growth over a period of time, it’s never a good thing. This either means you had a massive supply shortage or you had a credit boom.

Since 2014, we’ve not seen the credit housing boom that we saw from 2002-2005. Even today, the MBA purchase application index is below 2008 levels. The housing market can’t replicate the type of massive credit expansion we saw from 2002-2005, so the price-growth story has more to do with inventory collapsing to all-time lows.

It’s not just home price inflation either; shelter rental inflation has also taken off. When supply is low and demographics equal demand, don’t make it complicated, folks. People always need somewhere to live. If they’re employed, they’re either buying a home or renting.

Still, we can see the damage being done in the past few years as total housing inventory collapsed to all-time lows, and we are working our way back to just the historically low levels of inventory of 1.52 – 1.93 million.

For some time now, I have been focusing on that 1.52-1.93 million total housing inventory data as that is the level of inventory that would change my thesis that this is a savagely unhealthy market. The reality is that inventory collapsed to all-time lows right when our most prominent demographic reached their peak home-buying age. I believe once we get between 1.52-1.93 million, the housing market can be sane again, even though those levels were the historically low levels of inventory going back to 1982. I present my case for how we can break into that range next year on a podcast with Altos Research.

Hopefully, you can understand why we needed higher rates last year and early this year to try to cool the price-growth market. The reality is that home sellers and builders had too much pricing power. Also, certain investors felt no fear post-2020. The percentage of home flipping has grown since 2020, even beyond the housing bubble years, and we see some growth in total investor demand, however, as seen below, Institutional investors are still a small percentage of homebuyers.

Keep reading.

Related Links

If there is a home that you would like more information about, if you are considering selling a property, or if you have questions about the housing market in your neighborhood, please reach out. We’re here to help.

Search Homes in Colorado

Search Homes in Oklahoma

Search Homes in Oregon

Do Decks Add Value? 5 Backyard Features That Are Worth It

 
 

It’s easy to get carried away when designing the backyard of your dreams.

A pool? Yes! Sunroom? Of course! A new fence? Why not?? But the truth is that not all of these backyard features will be a selling point once it’s time to sell your home. 

We’ll explore the backyard features that offer the best return on investment, the nuances of a deck vs a patio, and how to stretch your money for the best backyard – on a budget.  

Do Decks Add Value To A Home? 

Short answer – yes. Long answer: decks are a practical way to add livability (i.e. square footage) to your home in a cost-effective way. Research shows that homeowners recoup at least 76% of their investment which is one the highest returns of any home improvement project. On average, the cost of a wooden deck is about $13,000 with a resale value of about $11,000. So it’s a safe bet for increasing your home value! 

Not only does it add monetary value, but if you enjoy the outdoors – it adds enormous value to your quality of life. Outdoor spaces that are conducive to cooking, eating together, hanging out, or watching the stars will create opportunities for family memories that you didn’t have before.  

Are you thinking about selling your home? Sell your home for more with Curbio. Get your free pre-listing renovation estimate today!

Decks vs. Patios 

After you’ve decided to move forward with a deck (great choice BTW) it’s time to get into the details. Do you want to build a deck – and if so, made of which material? Or is a patio a better choice for you? 

Wooden decks are the best choice because they’re affordable to build and desirable to buyers. Composite decking is pricier and doesn’t provide the same resale value – but it does offer higher durability than wood decks.  

Now to patios: typically, patios are built on a concrete slab. They’re commonly set with flagship stone, or a sand and pebble base. They are also built on ground-level, whereas decks are built above-ground. Patios are a great choice if you have a level area off your home and you’re interested in a small space for seating or a patio table. Decks are a better choice if you have a large space you’d like to convert and you don’t have a level backyard. 

Note the amount of direct sun your backyard gets as well. While building, this is a great time to decide on whether or not a covered area is right for your deck or patio. If you have brutal summers or not enough tree coverage, opt for at least partial shade. If you live somewhere temperate or with great foliage, you can probably leave the coverage out. 

Backyard Features That Add Value 

In addition to your deck, there are other profit-driving (and quality-of-life enhancing) outdoor features you can add to your dream backyard. Our 5 favorite backyard features that add value to your home include: 

Privacy Features 

Bushes, fences, and bamboo add depth and detail to the lines of your backyard – but they also serve an important function. Depending on your proximity to other neighbors, you might have total visibility into your backyard which is less than ideal. Instead of sharing your memories with the nosy family next door, consider bush installations that add both beauty and privacy. 

Shade Features 

On the same note, and a great suggestion to consider if your backyard lacks mature trees, is the concept of shade features. Pergolas, fruit trees, vines, and other larger growth is a great way to add vibrancy and life to your backyard, while also granting you some necessary relief. These are inexpensive options that continue to grow in both size and value over time – the larger they are, the more shade they provide. 

To get a sense of which renovations are the best option for you, chat with a home improvement consultant today. Curbio helps projects move faster, cost less, and sell for more. Get your free estimate today! 

A Swimming Pool 

Swimming pools are a polarizing feature. For some, they’re a must-have. For others, they’re high-maintenance and high-overhead. Think through the potential buyer of your home: do many people in the area want/have pools? Then it’s likely a good choice for your area. If you install an expensive pool though, don’t expect a high return. In-ground pools can cost between $30,000 and $100,000 to install, and recouping that investment depends greatly on who is buying. However, if it’s not about resale value, and it’s just about enjoyment – there’s nothing better than floating in your personal pool on a hot summer day. 

A Fire Pit 

Fire pits vary greatly in size, scope, and materials. Some people want them purely for function: a place to warm up and toast marshmallows on cool nights. Others create architectural statements that are luxurious and stylish. These obviously come with heftier installation costs. Think through your use of a fire pit and your objectives for your home value. Heavier investments will yield higher returns, but it’s not worth it if you don’t see the opportunity for consistent use. 

An Outdoor Kitchen 

Outdoor kitchens are a luxury, but they’re quickly becoming a backyard status symbol in certain climates. If outdoor livability is high in your area, an outdoor kitchen will pay for itself in a matter of months. Although they can cost anywhere from $15,000 to upwards of $100,000 – it’s best to keep it simple. NAR reports state that an inset grill, stainless steel drawers, a sink and 60 square feet of counter space is plenty for an adequate and functional cooking space. Plus, it makes sense financially! For a simpler install, homeowners can expect about a 71% return on investment. Who’s ready for dining al fresco? 

Knowing which outdoor features offer the best returns and drive the most value is an important step in designing your dream backyard. Even if a home sale isn’t in your immediate future, it’s best to make updates with your home’s worth in mind. If you’re thinking about selling – but don’t want to undergo the hassle and cost of updating your outdoor space, call Curbio! You don’t pay a dollar until your home sells, and with homeowners pocketing an average of $50,000 more in profit, every dollar counts.

Get more content like this on Curbio.

Related Links

If there is a home that you would like more information about, if you are considering selling a property, or if you have questions about the housing market in your neighborhood, please reach out. We’re here to help.

Search Homes in Colorado

Search Homes in Oklahoma

Search Homes in Oregon

What’s Next in Front Yard Gardens: 7 Curb Appeal Strategies

 
 

Want the latest take on street-view style? Home and landscape designer John Gidding, host of HGTV’s ‘Curb Appeal’ franchise for seven years, has big ideas.

WE AMERICANS LOVE our front lawns. Fairway-like expanses on which to run barefoot, toss a ball, attempt to perfect a so-so golf swing. Not that we often do these things, if ever. Still, we generally leave room for our country-club fantasies, devoting most of our plot to turf, with shrubbery and few trees hugging the edges—what John Gidding refers to, sadly, as a “houses on platters” style of landscaping. 

Since 2004, San Francisco-based Mr. Gidding, who designs homes and landscapes, has hosted television shows in which he transforms living spaces. These include iterations of HGTV’s series “Curb Appeal,” which takes homes’ exteriors and yards from dull to covetable. Many of his beautifying strategies are classic, such as ensuring a clear sight line to the front door and pushing for welcoming lighting. But by the time he was working on “Curb Appeal Extreme,” the 2021 version of the franchise that transformed homes both front and back, he had joined a wave of landscape designers and architects who evangelize gardens that factor in local ecology and dwindling resources. His aim is not unlike that of the United States Golf Association, who urged greenkeepers facing water restrictions back in 2016: “[Reduce] turf in out-of-play areas where turf is not necessary.”

M r. Gidding’s philosophy is as much about aesthetics as it is climate change. Instead of mowed turf bisected by routine pavers that march from curb to doorstep, Mr. Gidding recommends what he calls “sylvan landscaping” (and other advocates term “forest gardening”): a layering of native greenery comprising trees, shrubs, perennials and ground cover. “It’s a much more romantic, naturalistic style,” he said. Sound like a lot of upkeep? Part of the point in choosing native material, he counters, is its low water and chemical requirements. “It’ll take a couple years to establish, but after that, it should be very low-maintenance,” he said, acknowledging that abandoning turf is a huge leap for most yard owners. But he has baby-step suggestions as well other curb-appeal ideas a 41-minute television episode can’t accommodate. Here, some essentials.

1. Glimpses of a facade are more beautiful than a full-frontal

Few people find a front-door approach flanked by keep-off-the-grass-style turf particularly welcoming. Much more inviting: a yard that affords passersby more-oblique, seductive sightings of the house. “It’s not like you’re crowding yourself in with trees and cutting yourself off from neighbors or sunlight,” said Mr. Gidding, who illustrates his vision below. His ideal neighborhood is “a bunch of houses in clearings within trees that create a lifeline for wildlife and reduce our dependence on pesticides and mowing lawns,” he said, referring to the EPA’s estimate that one gasoline-powered lawn mower produces roughly 35 times as much pollution as the average car.

2. A single tree can help

When trying to coax a Nashville couple to adopt his sylvan-yard concept on “Curb Appeal Xtreme,” Mr. Gidding learned the idea is a tough sell. Though the pair initially agreed to replace the lawn with an all-native landscape, he recalled, “As layer upon layer of planting material was delivered, they got scared and called us saying, ‘We’ve changed our minds. We could never take care of all these plants.’” Mr. Gidding was crestfallen. “You see on the show I’m not in the scenes where they’re rolling out sod. I refused.”

Another Nashville couple, Tony and Ann Richardson, admit that garden vegetation is harder to maintain than lawn. As part of the “Curb Appeal Xtreme” makeover of their home, copious planting—not exclusively native—now borders the steppingstones to their door. “However, it is well worth the extra work,” said Ms. Richardson. “We have seen an increase in many species, including bees, turtles, humming birds and frogs, and gardening is therapeutic and meditative for us.”

For the similarly creature-conscious but perhaps less ambitious, Mr. Gidding suggests this first step: Plant one native tree in your front lawn. “Trees are such a bedrock of wildlife support. And it’s a start.”

To single out a tree to try, take a field trip to a nearby nature preserve, he said. Alternatively, the Audubon society’s native-plant database at audubon.org lists trees indigenous to your zip code that will lure birds seeking both food and a happy-making habitat. 

3. Your front yard can become another outdoor living room

“Before Covid, people were like, ‘I don’t want seating in the front yard, that’s weird. I like to sit in my backyard,’” said Mr. Gidding. The isolation of quarantine changed attitudes, he added: “Post Covid, no questions asked. ‘Of course I would have seating in my front yard. It’s such a communal spot.’” This didn’t mean folks plopped themselves in full sight of traffic and passersby. Mr. Gidding replaced the concrete front stoop of the Richardsons’ midcentury-modern house with a cascade of small wood decks, for example. One level down from the door, he created a seating area partially shielded from the street by shrubs and grasses. Today the couple uses it for morning coffee and catch-ups with friends. During the pandemic, the nestled space, half private, half communal, helped combat cabin fever. “Sitting out front, having some kind of interaction with other people, even if just waving...did encourage us to use that area,” Ms. Richardson said. 

4. Facades should not follow color trends

Though Mr. Gidding broke his own rule at times on “Curb Appeal,” he blames the “trend pipeline” that a TV audience requires. “Don’t do what I do, do what I say,” he said, citing the fickleness of trends and the expense of repainting. Save of-the-moment colors for details like planters and fabrics, even shutters and doors.

5. Jewel tones always work on a front door

“Curb Appeal” taught Mr. Gidding this lesson. Sometimes, if he left a main entrance as is because it suited the home’s style, “I would get a note back from the network saying there’s not enough before-and-after pop.” So he’d paint the door, “and it was a revelation,” he said. “I learned over time that I could really push the front-door aesthetic, from a color perspective, as far as I wanted, and it would work almost every time.” Though he consequently has few door-hue rules, he’s found that gem tones—ruby, deep purple, emerald—rarely fail. “They have a richness to them, a sort of groundedness,” he said. Front doors often feature facet- or bevel-like edges, “so the jewel-tone analogy really works,” he said.

6. Every house has an architectural style you can build upon

So that the colors and details of your facade hang together, either identify your home’s style or attach a style onto it and let that be your guide. Every day he worked on “Curb Appeal,” Mr. Gidding says, he referred to “A Field Guide to American Houses” by Virginia and Lee McAlester, which he got while at Harvard’s Graduate School of Design. Even with a house of indeterminate style—say, vaguely ranch or colonial—“all it takes is identifying one or two key architectural features that help you latch the house onto an identity, and you’re off and running.” The McAlesters’ book calls out window trims, materials, etc., appropriate to your home’s type.

When confronted, for example, with a small, single-story house with Craftsman bungalow features—a low-pitched double roof and overhanging eaves—Mr. Gidding used the book to strategize his tweaks. He removed the architecturally inaccurate dentil molding that crowned the large front window, added natural-wood details and painted over the sky-blue exterior with muddy greens and blues, all true to the Craftsman spirit.

Even McMansions can be redirected. “If the developer of your home used unrelated details willy-nilly, resulting in a Garage Mahal, the work might be in removing some architectural features and streamlining your home toward an identifiable style,” he said.

7. Guidance is everywhere

The layperson is still out there, said Mr. Gidding, but in ever fewer numbers, thanks to social media. “Homeowners used to say to me, ‘I don’t really know what to do.’ These days they say, ‘Here’s my seven Pinterest boards.’” Mr. Gidding’s parting advice: Scour websites, DIY videos, Instagram. “There are many resources for facades that have worked. As soon as you start looking up styles of homes, you get very clear cues as to what to do to your house.”

Get more like this on Apple News.

Related Links

If there is a home that you would like more information about, if you are considering selling a property, or if you have questions about the housing market in your neighborhood, please reach out. We’re here to help.

Search Homes in Colorado

Search Homes in Oklahoma

Search Homes in Oregon

As Featured in West + Main Home Magazine: A Historic Bungalow with Potential Turned Denver Dream Home

 
 

When West + Main agent Kate Kazell and her family began their search for a new home in early 2021 they encountered an issue many homebuyers face: the houses they wanted were starting within budget and then ended up getting bid out of reach. Their search terms were a bit unique as well.

"We were looking for a bit of a unicorn, as we wanted a historic home...but also wanted some more modern features like an open-concept living space + a primary suite - which just isn’t how houses were built 100 years ago,"

-Kate Kazell

 
 

They got creative with the search and started looking for homes with potential to turn into the space they hoped for.

"During our house hunt, we made an offer on a super cute bungalow that had a couple walls taken down to create a huge open living area instead of the small, long and skinny living rooms that are standard in homes of that era,” said Kate. “It was beautiful and the best of both worlds - a charming historic home with a big space that we could envision kids running around in and having friends and family over without feeling cramped. When we didn’t get that house, we were kind of set on re-creating that feel and layout, and knew it would be possible to do ourselves."

Once they closed on this West Wash Park home, they got to work. The project was split into two main parts: knocking down walls on the main floor and removing a small bedroom for the open concept living room, and converting the original attic into a primary suite. This was no small feat.

"Truth be told, it was a pretty big project that required help from several professionals: an architect, a structural engineer, and a general contractor who managed dozens of subcontractors,” said Kate. “We shared with them what our vision was, and they created the plans taking into account what was physically possible, required by permitting, etc."

With a project of this scale, it was important to have professionals guiding Kate through the process and applying their knowledge. While she initially thought the attic conversion would be simple like finishing a basement, it ended up having a fair amount of structural implications and required architectural planning in order to work within the confines of the existing structure. With so many moving pieces, this project required professionals from almost every trade including framing, plumbing, HVAC, drywall + tiling. Using a General Contractor with good contacts in all of these fields to coordinate and manage the project was helpful to keep it all on track.

Below: Before photos of the downstairs of Kate’s home.

After of Kate Kazell’s living space

The new upstairs primary suite features a bedroom, a full bathroom with dual vanities, a shower with a skylight, and a reading nook on the other side overlooking the street.

"The design aspect of it was really fun because we got to pick everything - but it was a little overwhelming at times because there are SO many options," admitted Kate. “Thankfully the vision I had in my head ended up coming together really well! I wanted to bring back some of the original features of the home that had been lost in renovations over the past century, so we chose new Craftsman style trim to match the original window and door casings, traditional 5-panel doors, really cool unique replica doorknobs and a traditional penny-tile in our new bathroom that is similar to what you’d find in original early century homes.”

But overall, it also has a bit of a Scandinavian/minimalist vibe, with some modern features like the stair railing, bathroom finishes, and light fixtures.

As with any renovation, this project came with surprises, delays and additional costs. Kate's advice is to prepare for the unexpected: It’s definitely not a quick episode of 'Fixer Upper,' but it’s worth it in the end to have a space you love!

Kate on Design + Inspiration

Q: When it came to the design + finishes, what was your process?

Kate: “Ultimately our project ended up being two-fold - we knocked a few walls down and turned a small bedroom into part of a big living room…and we also converted the empty unused original attic into a primary suite. Truth be told, it was a pretty big project that required help from several professionals to include an architect, a structural engineer, and a general contractor who managed dozens of subcontractors. We shared with them what our vision was, and they created the plans taking into account what was physically possible, required by permitting, etc. The design aspect of it was really fun because we got to pick everything - but it was a little overwhelming at times because there are SO many options. Thankfully the vision I had in my head ending up coming together really well! I wanted to bring back some of the original features of the home that had been lost in renovations over the past century, so we chose new craftsman style trim to match the original window and door casings, did traditional 5-panel doors, found really cool unique replica door knobs to closely match the originals that were only left on one closet door, and did a pretty traditional penny-tile in our new bathroom that is similar to what you’d find in original early century homes. But overall, it also has a bit of a Scandanavian/minimalist vibe, with some modern features like the stair railing, bathroom finishes, and light fixtures.”

Q: What is your favorite part of the finished project?

Kate": “I absolutely love the bright open living/dining room - it’s a unique space and is super practical. I also love so many of the smaller touches we put on it - like the skylight in the shower, the exposed beams in our bedroom, and the original window in the dormer that we’ve made into a cozy reading nook.”

“A plus side to doing a full renovation is being able to create areas perfect for your own family.”

-Kate Kazell

Upstairs Bed + Bath Serenity

All in the details


If there is a home that you would like more information about, if you are considering selling a property, or if you have questions about the housing market in your neighborhood, please reach out. We’re here to help.

Search Homes in Colorado

Search Homes in Oklahoma

Search Homes in Oregon

41% of People Regret This Kitchen Reno, But You Don’t Have To

 
 

What do sage green, baby blue, and mustard yellow all have in common? They’ve been the trendiest kitchen cabinet shades for the past couple of years.

But not everyone is a fan. After surveying 1,000 renovators, MoneyWise found that nearly half of them, 41 percent to be exact, regret painting their cupboards a colorful hue or refinishing their original boxes. However, we can’t get enough of making a statement in the kitchen, whether it’s swathing standard IKEA frames in a poppy coat of fuchsia or mixing plywood and pastels. Ahead, we spotlight a few ideas that will change your mind about this so-called mistake.

Add Metallic Accents

Take a note from Joy Cho’s backyard ADU kitchen and spice up your cupboard doors by adding a brass accent. The seemingly random formation helps keep things casual; just be sure to use the metal fronts sparingly and save the larger panels for a muted hue. 

Keep It Streamlined

In Los Angeles, Rebekah Bowling and Andrew Chen stuck to their gut when choosing a bold cabinetry color. From the lowest drawers all the way up to the skylight, a deep teal swaths everything in sight. The trick with an allover shade like this is to avoid distracting hardware and go with sleek integrated pulls.

Go Totally Tonal

A windowless galley kitchen in a London mews may sound dark and dismal, but thanks to pastel pink millwork, light still finds a way to bounce around. Paired with a bright red ceiling, the statement space is a contrast to the rest of the home’s stark white walls.

Get more like this on Domino.

Related Links

If there is a home that you would like more information about, if you are considering selling a property, or if you have questions about the housing market in your neighborhood, please reach out. We’re here to help.

Search Homes in Colorado

Search Homes in Oklahoma

Search Homes in Oregon