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Mortgage rates hit a new 2025 low after soft job openings report

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Mortgage rates decreased slightly on Wednesday morning to a year-to-date low of 6.49% after the job openings data came in below expectations. The key takeaway from this BLS report is that we now have more unemployed workers than job openings. This is significant because the Federal Reserve has traditionally valued job openings data and has emphasized that there have always been more job openings than unemployed workers in the past.

On this news, the 10-year yield fell a few basis points and this is one of four labor reports we will get this week.

Job openings

From the BLS: The number of job openings was little changed at 7.2 million in July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, both hires and total separations were unchanged at 5.3 million. Within separations, both quits (3.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.8 million) were unchanged.

I believe the Federal Reserve views this data positively because its primary goal is to reduce wage growth back to around 3%. They don’t have much faith in the productivity growth narrative, so achieving 3% wage growth with 1% productivity could help reach the 2% inflation target.

Now that there are more unemployed Americans than job openings, this situation should provide them with some reassurance. As shown below, the Fed has made significant progress in reducing job openings from nearly 12 million following the COVID recession to about 7.2 million.

Jobs week continues

We have several more important economic reports coming out this week, including the ADP jobs report, jobless claims report and the crucial monthly nonfarm payroll jobs report from the BLS on Friday. The previous BLS jobs report was significantly below expectations, so even a small improvement would be notable. I recently discussed how to approach jobs week in this episode of the HousingWire Daily podcast with Sarah Wheeler.

It’s been very hard for the 10-year yield to break under 4.18% and stick this year. The only way we did this was in the aftermath of the Godzilla tariffs, when stocks entered a brief bear market. So until we are able to do this, I wouldn’t get too excited about rates going much lower. Of course, mortgage rates are already near year-to-date lows because mortgage spreads are better in 2025 than in the past two years.

Conclusion

While today’s job openings report wasn’t terrible, it was soft enough to lower bond yields. This will be the last job openings report before the next Fed meeting and the Fed has emphasized this data point significantly over the years.

The labor market is not showing signs of breaking down, but it lacks a solid foundation, as manufacturing and residential jobs are currently being lost. Without the influx of AI-driven investment into the economy, the labor data would likely be in a worse state. We will see what the upcoming reports reveal, but beating the three-month average of 35,000 job growth this Friday shouldn’t be too difficult.

Read more at Housingwire

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4 Fall-Inspired At-Home Activities for Labor Day Weekend

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Labor Day weekend is the perfect opportunity to welcome the fall season. Yes, we know that autumn doesn’t technically start until September 22. But you can celebrate the last warm weeks of summer while preparing for the fall chill.

These activities are perfect for anyone. Whether you’re having family, friends, or neighbors over—they can all take part. Of course, we chose a lot of outdoor activities because how else do you celebrate the end of summer? But we know that weather doesn’t always cooperate, and you might not enjoy being outside. So we also offer indoor versions of each activity to have on hold for inclement weather or personal preference.

1, Backyard Movie Night

Who doesn’t love movie night? As fall approaches, the sun sets earlier and earlier, making Labor Day weekend the perfect time for a backyard movie night. Invite your friends and neighbors to pull up a chair (or blanket!) and get comfy while you recreate the big screen in your backyard. If you live close to your neighbors or plan on watching a loud movie, we recommend letting them know ahead of time.

What You Need

For a backyard movie night, you’ll need a projector and movie screen (sometimes a sheet will do!), snacks, and seating. But you don’t have to provide all of those yourself. For example, as the host, you can provide the movie and snacks—and ask guests to bring their own chair and blankets. Or, you can provide the seating and ask that each guest brings one snack or one drink.

Bring It Inside

If you’re hosting a movie night on Labor Day weekend, we recommend skipping the TV—even indoors. Instead, find a blank wall in your house (or somewhere you can hang a sheet or screen) and bring the snacks and the seating inside! It might not feel like the drive-ins, but it certainly won’t feel like a regular movie night, either.

2. S’mores Station

S’mores are another classic summer and fall-time treat, so why not do them at home! As long as your city allows, host a bonfire in your yard and create a build-your-own-s’mores station. You can provide the usual ingredients—chocolate, marshmallow, and graham cracker. But don’t be afraid to add your own flair, too! Offer Oreo cookies as a graham cracker alternative, or peanut butter candy instead of chocolate. If you really want to stick with the s’mores theme, you can use s’mores Oreos!

What You Need

All you need is the ingredients, a bonfire, and skewers for the marshmallows. Like your backyard movie night, you can ask each guest to bring a unique s’more ingredient while you provide the usuals. Of course, you should absolutely have someone with experience tending to the bonfire. And make sure to follow any local rules about size, location, and timing. Safety always comes first!

Bring It Inside

You can’t exactly bring your bonfire inside—but you can pop them into the oven. There are many recipes online, but they’re all simple. All you have to do is put the graham crackers (or cracker alternative) into the oven with the marshmallows. Once warm and slightly gooey, remove the two items, add chocolate or other melty candy, and there you have it!

3. DIY Fall Decorations

Get a head start on the fall decorations with some DIY crafting! Sunflowers bloom in summer into the fall, so you can create door wreaths or centerpiece bouquets. You can also spray paint mason jars in warm orange and bright yellow to use for vases. Or you can try this adorable mason jar pumpkin idea! The options for fall decorations are endless—so pick your favorite and get crafty.

What You Need

Paint, jars, sunflowers, burlap—whatever materials you need to create your fall-inspired masterpieces. Choose two or three activities, write your list of materials, and grab them all before the long weekend. That way, you won’t need to scramble the weekend of and risk any holiday crowds.

Bring It Inside

Technically, crafting isn’t an outdoor sport, so bringing it indoors is as simple as clearing the kitchen table. But if you want to get creative, you can lay down a tarp and DIY on the living room floor or take the typical crafting tools out of the equation. For example, if you can’t use a paintbrush to color the mason jars, what else can you use? Your hands? Spray paint? A sponge?

4. Backyard Camping

Sometimes, camping in the woods isn’t an option. Maybe your little one gets homesick or you want to avoid tick season. No matter the reason, camping in your yard is an exciting alternative. Plus, you can combine camping with s’mores and even a pre-camp outdoor movie screening! If you’re hosting friends, everyone can pitch their own tent and head to bed when they’re ready. If it’s just family, have the kids choose who sleeps in which tents.

What You Need

A tent and a yard! Okay, well, you may need a few tents. But you only need one yard! If you plan on having the kids sleep separate, you’ll need big enough tents to accommodate everyone and their sleeping bags. But if friends are spending the night, too, you can ask that they bring their own tent and blankets, and you’ll provide the yard.

Bring It Inside

Camping is fun anywhere! To bring it inside, clear the floor of your living room and pitch a tent right there. You can even have the kiddos camp in their own rooms on the floor. As long as they’re in a tent, they’re camping.

Read more at Cheers & Confetti

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What Everyone’s Getting Wrong About the Rise in New Home Inventory

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You may have seen talk online that new home inventory is at its highest level since the crash. And if you lived through the crash back in 2008, seeing new construction is up again may feel a little scary.

But here’s what you need to remember: a lot of what you see online is designed to get clicks. So, you may not be getting the full story. A closer look at the data and a little expert insight can change your perspective completely.

Why This Isn’t Like 2008

While it’s true the number of new homes on the market hit its highest level since the crash, that’s not a reason to worry. That’s because new builds are just one piece of the puzzle. They don’t tell the full story of what’s happening today.

To get the real picture of how much inventory we have and how it compares to the surplus we saw back then, you’ve got to look at both new homes and existing homes (homes that were lived in by a previous owner).

When you combine those two numbers, it’s clear overall supply looks very different today than it did around the crash (see graph below):

Builders Have Actually Underbuilt for Over a Decade

And here’s some other important perspective you’re not going to get from those headlines. After the 2008 crash, builders slammed on the brakes. For 15 years, they didn’t build enough homes to keep up with demand. That long stretch of underbuilding created a major housing shortage, which we’re still dealing with today.

The graph below uses Census data to show the overbuilding leading up to the crash (in red), and the period of underbuilding that followed (in orange):

Basically, we had more than 15 straight years of underbuilding – and we’re only recently starting to slowly climb out of that hole. But there’s still a long way to go (even with the growth we’ve seen lately). Experts at Realtor.com say it would roughly 7.5 years to build enough homes to close the gap.

Of course, like anything else in real estate, the level of supply and demand is going to vary by market. Some markets may have more homes for sale, some less. But nationally, this isn’t like the last time.

Bottom Line

Just because there are more new homes for sale right now, it doesn’t mean we’re headed for a crash. The data shows today’s overall inventory situation is different.

If you have questions or want to talk about what builders are doing in your area, connect with a local agent.

Read more at Keeping Current Matters

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Wallpaper Trends That May Actually Help You Sell Your Home

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Wallpaper is making a comeback. Once viewed as outdated and a hassle to remove, wallpaper nowadays comes in new materials and modern patterns that are winning over fans once again. The key? Don’t overdo it. Moderation is key, especially when selling a home.

Does Wallpaper Help Sell a House—or Distract?

Certainly, some buyers may have negative impressions about wallpaper, especially if it is in multiple areas throughout the home or feels like it’s in an outdated pattern. Those who’ve spent countless hours removing old wallpaper in the past may be unlikely to appreciate it, even in its new form.

However, wallpaper used on a single accent wall or in just one room, such as a guest bathroom, might be something buyers can overlook—and dare we say, even appreciate.

A survey conducted by Talker Research, commissioned by Realty ONE Group, found that nearly one-third of twenty-somethings love wallpaper in a home. Twenty-three percent favor nautical or beach-themed wallpaper prints, while another 21% favor wallpaper with a boho vibe.

Knowing which prints will stand the test of time—and which will have buyers asking for a decorating allowance—can mean the difference between selling a listing quickly and seeing it linger on the market for several months.

5 Wallpaper Trends to Consider

1. Textured Neutral

Textured walls are reminiscent of plaster walls of the early 1900s. Adding textured wallpaper in a soft taupe or eggshell can hint at the house’s charm, particularly if the home has a vintage flair.

2. Complementary Colors

Wallpaper choices should complement other elements in the space, like the furnishings. For example, blue stripes on an accent wall draw the eye and can mesh well with a luxurious gold sofa, offering the space an elegant appeal.

3. Small-Scale Patterns

The wrong wallpaper used in spaces like entryways, laundry rooms and half baths can feel cluttered. Smaller-scale patterns may be less off-putting. But carefully assess the print from a distance to ensure the pattern isn’t too busy or that the print isn’t so small that it gets lost from across the room.

4. Nature-Inspired Prints

Nature-themed décor has made a resurgence in recent years. The calming reassurance of a forest scene or flora and fauna prints may remind buyers of simpler pleasures. In an urban setting, nature-inspired elements can help people escape the hustle and bustle of city-living. Pair nature-inspired prints with live plants for an added natural touch.

5. Deep, Rich Colors

Tapping into the emotional power of deep, rich colors like mahogany, red, orange and yellow can add excitement to a space. These hues work particularly well in the social areas of a home, like a kitchen or living room.

Yes, You Can Overdo It with Wallpaper!

You might love the look of a beautiful wallpaper mural in a home’s entryway, but buyers may have mixed reactions. Plaid prints and wallpapered ceilings are popular in 2025 design but may not translate well when selling a home.

Regardless, if someone loves a home, they’ll buy it with wallpaper—or not. However, if their choice has come down to two houses, they may be more likely to forgo the home they view as needing extra renovations to get rid of something they despise.

Real estate professionals may be finding they’re having tough conversations with more clients about their wallpaper choices. But when selected carefully and strategically, wallpaper could be a home’s asset and a valuable staging tool to make a space more memorable. There is a fine line of overdoing it—sellers should balance the trend by choosing wallpaper that makes you awe, not gasp.

Read more at NAR

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Home sales are ticking up — and more are coming to market

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After mortgage rates shot up three years ago, the housing market slowed. And the newest numbers from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) show only a glint of improvement: Sales of existing homes rose 2% in July, compared to a month earlier.

At the current pace, the association estimates that about 4 million existing homes will be sold in the U.S. this year. That's far lower than during the pandemic and significantly lower than before the pandemic.

But there is a bright spot or two in the new figures. First, a lot more homes are for sale. "We now have the highest inventory since the 2020 lockdown period, essentially five years ago," said Lawrence Yun, the association's chief economist.

In July there were 1.55 million units for sale, nearly 16% more than a year earlier.

The increase in inventory is good news for buyers, because it gives them options and more leverage to negotiate. (For sellers, it's not so good. Homes are taking longer to sell — an average of 28 days, compared to 24 days in July 2024, according to the NAR.)

Also, prices are softening in many markets: A report by Realtor.com found that prices in July dropped in 33 of the 50 largest metro areas. NAR's data showed price declines in the South and West, and home prices are now increasing at their slowest pace in two years, according to an analysis by Wells Fargo.

Still, nationwide, prices were up — although minimally — to a median price of $422,400.

High prices deter buyers, but more listings help

The market is slow because prices and mortgage rates are high.

Rates for a 30-year mortgage are currently averaging about 6.6%. And home prices have risen a lot — nearly 50% since before the pandemic. Put those together, and it means that many people who want to buy a home simply can't afford to.

Still, even a small shift in mortgage rates is enough to help loosen things up slightly. Mortgage rates have inched down in recent weeks and are now at their lowest level since October 2024.

That has spurred a jump in refinance activity, especially among homeowners with mortgage rates above 7%. It's offered them a window to get a lower rate and shave potentially hundreds of dollars off their monthly payments.

In the months ahead, Joel Kan, deputy chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association, says some "opposing forces" will affect mortgage rates.

"Our forecast is for rates to stay close to the 6.6% range, at least through the end of the year," he said. But the Federal Reserve Board meets in mid-September for a vote on whether to lower interest rates, which can influence mortgage rates. "You certainly have the expectation that if the Fed does start to cut rates, rates might come down," he continued. "On the other side, you do have things like concerns around the debt and the deficit of the U.S. that is keeping rates higher."

And to make things even more complicated, Kan says, it's likely that anticipation of a possible interest rate cut is already being factored into current mortgage rates, which means a cut might not cause mortgage rates to drop further.

Still, Kan expects some change next year, when he thinks rates could get down to the 6.5% range, with weeks where they dip below that mark. Lower rates could push some would-be buyers off the sidelines, because they'll help make the homebuying math work — as long as prices don't spike.

The lock-in effect is easing a bit

During the pandemic, many homeowners were able to buy or refinance at super-low mortgage rates in the 3% range. Today, those low rates give them a strong incentive to stay put, since moving would mean taking on a higher-priced loan.

That's left many U.S. households stuck in homes that are too small or too large — and unable to trade for a better fit. Economists have worried that this "lock-in effect" would keep the housing market stuck for many years.

The rising inventory level reported by the NAR this week is a sign that some people are moving out and giving up those low rates.

"We are still below pre-COVID [levels], but certainly we are no longer in that mortgage rate lock-in period. As people need to move, people are putting their homes on the market and making the next moves," says Yun. "The turnover in the home sales market still remains very very sluggish, but the inventory is beginning to show up."

Mixed indicators on new home construction

New data this week from the Census Bureau shows that housing starts in July were up 5% over a month earlier. But building permits were down nearly 3% compared to June.

Buddy Hughes, chairman of the National Association of Home Builders, said in a statement that reductions in homebuilding are the result of affordability challenges for buyers, a shortage of skilled labor and high regulatory costs.

"These headwinds were reflected in our latest builder survey, which indicates that affordability is the top challenge to the housing market," Hughes added.

Read more at NPR

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